Predicting disease flares in axial spondyloarthritis using different machine learning models in the METEOR-SpA registry.
D B · 2026 · RMD open
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What this paper found
Using registry data on people with axial spondyloarthritis on biologics, a model built from eight routine measures, current and previous disease activity, sex, flare history, enthesitis, infliximab use, the doctor's global assessment and CRP, predicted flares moderately well in its own data and only modestly in an outside registry. Flare prediction is not ready to guide individual treatment changes, but the list of what predicts a flare is itself useful.
Why this is on the map
An honest external validation; most flare-prediction papers stop at the internal result.
On the map under this thread
DOI: 10.1136/rmdopen-2026-007147 · opens in a new tab. The full paper is on the publisher’s site, not here.
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